State of the Election 2016
Trump Meteor Forecast
There's an Election I Guess
The ability to keep talking as if Trump could win is getting harder and harder for the press. Coverage of the Wikileaks reveal is increasing but not dominating the new. Turns out talking about what's in them is really boring.
What is the main election story are the senate races. (Yeah, there are more elections this year than President. Who knew?)
Going into 34 different senate races are way beyond what I could do here (and would also end up as a cure for insomnia). Instead, I've just been following the FiveThirtyEight forecast. The general outcome is that whoever ends up controlling the Senate, the margin will be narrow, and currently democrats are the favorite. In other words, exactly what I would have told you 2 years ago.
But, hey what else would we talk about? Right now the chances for democrats controlling the senate is looking good, about 65/35. They just have to get a +4 seats (given Clinton is likely to win) and republicans have to defend 24. 3 republicans already look like they have flipped (IN, IL, WI), while only one democratic (NV) is competitive, so democrats only need to win 2 more. In other words, democrats best chance is to win 3 of the the 4 most competitive: PA, NH, MO, NV. Be warned, that this forecast is very volatile, so don't get cozy.
Democrats taking the House is not worth talking about yet. (Even though many in the news are. They have to talk about something)
In the When Can We Say Trump Will Not Be President?, I mention Trump might pull it out if he did three things. We're getting to whether we can see if there is any validity.
I've given Trump a 1% to 2% bump from the 3rd Debate, but I may have overestimated that. We still are not seeing it. In Real Clear Politics, it looks like I may have overestimated. The enthusiasm I saw the day after has waned and may have just been "happy talk" (short term denial). If I only look at the last 3 polls, I do see that 1% bump, so my genius may still become evident in a few days. But even then, the increase will be short lived.
The reports on early voting is getting muddled by partisan reporting, so I would describe it as mixed. However, I am more swayed by what I'm not hearing. Trump is working with a narrow demographic and behind in the polls. I'm not hearing about waves of registrations or votes in those demographics. Just as important, those voting now are doing so in the shadow of Trump's failings. Each vote now, is one that can't be swayed by later Wikileak reveals or other "October surprises".
Both those two, data points do not bode well for a 3rd Debate shift, hidden voters, or low turnout. There's still some time for Trump, but it's running out.
What is the main election story are the senate races. (Yeah, there are more elections this year than President. Who knew?)
Going into 34 different senate races are way beyond what I could do here (and would also end up as a cure for insomnia). Instead, I've just been following the FiveThirtyEight forecast. The general outcome is that whoever ends up controlling the Senate, the margin will be narrow, and currently democrats are the favorite. In other words, exactly what I would have told you 2 years ago.
But, hey what else would we talk about? Right now the chances for democrats controlling the senate is looking good, about 65/35. They just have to get a +4 seats (given Clinton is likely to win) and republicans have to defend 24. 3 republicans already look like they have flipped (IN, IL, WI), while only one democratic (NV) is competitive, so democrats only need to win 2 more. In other words, democrats best chance is to win 3 of the the 4 most competitive: PA, NH, MO, NV. Be warned, that this forecast is very volatile, so don't get cozy.
Democrats taking the House is not worth talking about yet. (Even though many in the news are. They have to talk about something)
In the When Can We Say Trump Will Not Be President?, I mention Trump might pull it out if he did three things. We're getting to whether we can see if there is any validity.
I've given Trump a 1% to 2% bump from the 3rd Debate, but I may have overestimated that. We still are not seeing it. In Real Clear Politics, it looks like I may have overestimated. The enthusiasm I saw the day after has waned and may have just been "happy talk" (short term denial). If I only look at the last 3 polls, I do see that 1% bump, so my genius may still become evident in a few days. But even then, the increase will be short lived.
The reports on early voting is getting muddled by partisan reporting, so I would describe it as mixed. However, I am more swayed by what I'm not hearing. Trump is working with a narrow demographic and behind in the polls. I'm not hearing about waves of registrations or votes in those demographics. Just as important, those voting now are doing so in the shadow of Trump's failings. Each vote now, is one that can't be swayed by later Wikileak reveals or other "October surprises".
Both those two, data points do not bode well for a 3rd Debate shift, hidden voters, or low turnout. There's still some time for Trump, but it's running out.
You've Disappointed Me Again McCain
I've been pushing the argument that Trump Will Not Decide the Next Supreme Court Justice, Nor Will Clinton. The reason I've been doing, so is that if you are are true conservative, this is the only reason to vote for Trump. It saddens me that so many are having to compromise their principles for a what was never possible. Well, I saw some news that supports my claim.
Tell every conservative you know.
